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Energy-Inventory Tightness

How tight are US petroleum stocks?

Refresh
weekly
History
2.8 yrs
Plan
Gold
100.0/ 100
Stable

US crude oil inventories (national, ex-SPR)

2023-09-01 2.8 yrs · 148 pts 2026-06-26

Top drivers

crude_stocks_kbz_score_vs_2yr_baseline4wk_stock_change_kb
⌁ mcp.call("adw-062") vADW-062-live-1.0
Use cases

What it unlocks

⌁

For an agent

A commodity trading agent polls ADW-062 weekly; when the EIA petroleum stocks z-score hits 100 (current: 100.0, 100th percentile — maximum tightness in the 148-week backtest history since September 2023) with a rising trend, the agent flags upstream crude long positions for hold and queues a review of any short-dated refinery supply contracts, citing source_lineage (EIA weekly petroleum status report) in the trade rationale. The 100th-percentile score means physical inventories are tighter than any prior week in the tracked history, giving the agent a concrete threshold to escalate to a human trader rather than relying on oil-price moves alone, which are coincident.

📈

For the business

An energy supply-chain lead at a large airline or industrial manufacturer uses ADW-062 to time jet-fuel and feedstock forward purchases. A score of 100 — maximum tightness ever recorded in the tracked EIA series — signals that spot price spikes are likely imminent as refiners draw on already-depleted buffers. Versus the status quo of watching WTI spot prices (which reflect tightness only after it has occurred), the inventory-tightness score provides a structural leading indicator, allowing the procurement team to buy forwards before the spot curve fully reprices.

Forward outlook

Prediction

Horizon
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Recommended use
Measure US crude oil market tightness for energy trading, procurement hedging, and macro oil-price risk assessment. High score = tight supply. Weekly cadence. Monthly EIA report validation lags ~2 weeks.
Methodology

How it's built

composite z-score 0-100

Version ADW-062-live-1.0 · validated to beat a naive baseline · benchmark: n/a